2017 has been a doozie of a Toronto real estate headline year, don’t you think?
First it was this…
- Big banks are freaking out about Toronto real estate
- A million dollars now buys a tear-down in Toronto’s Greektown
- Toronto Real Estate Sees Detached Prices Rise 32.5% In February
- Wynne housing plan likely to cause pause in home buying: Report
- Toronto now officially a buyers’ market, amid nationwide home sales slump: CREA report
- Toronto housing demand slides as sales drop most in eight years
- Toronto home buyers and sellers play the waiting game
- Toronto’s new housing market reality: “non-buyer’s remorse.”
- Toronto Condo Prices Soar 28%, Pass Half-Million Mark
“PAIN”. “REMORSE”. “A MILLION BUCKS”. “FREAKING OUT”. “SLUMP”. I mean, I get it. I’m from the world of broadcast. I have friends, clients and acquaintances who are advertisers, writers, editors, and columnists. Your people won’t read the article if the headline doesn’t grab them. In truth, it’s not all false. The above is a decent summary of the past year (**with lots and lots of drama thrown in for good measure**).
You might recall I had a Toronto real estate listing film go viral earlier this year. Here was one of the headlines on it:
Sexy or sexist? Toronto penthouse ad portrays ‘beautiful woman servant’ as ‘bumbling idiot’: critic
I’d click and read that. Certainly that headline is a lot more interesting than “clever Toronto Real Estate agent thinks outside of the box.” Right?
The problem with headlines is that most people read just that. And then, without proper information, consider themselves expert enough to comment and argue on social media, rebutting online arguments with online strangers about a topic they are ill-informed on. If you’ve been just reading headlines, you’re probably still believing that a real estate bubble is happening.
What the f&c% is a Toronto real estate bubble anyway? (**Considering that it draws 797,000 results on google, you’d think there’d be more clarity**)
As we approach the second hottest real estate time-of-year in Toronto (the Fall Toronto Real Estate Market, running the week after Labour Day and through until the early/middle of November), let me give you the summary of what’s gone down this year so far and what I predict for the 2017 Fall Toronto Real Estate Market.
(1) January-April, 2017 = Mix no inventory, a record number of qualified buyers, the lowest interest rates EVER, “the Trump effect,” mild temperatures that made it feel like spring right from January onwards AND steady, constant and rather incredible real estate appreciation? For four solid months it was bidding war central with severely under listed properties holding back offers to get multiples — and getting 25-35% year over year appreciation on the sales. As a real estate agent on the front lines, I can tell you that I was living and sleeping real estate every hour of the day for those four months.
(2) May-July, 2017: On April 20th, Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne unveiled a 16-point fair housing plan with an intent to cool the market. The plan (see here) slapped a 15% non-resident speculation tax on the purchase of homes, along with a package of measures to govern fairness to buyers and renters. Because people read headlines without gathering facts…(???), the market cooled. I say that because nothing in the plan was overly impactful to the rise of prices. For example, number 15 in the plan: make elevators more reliable. Really?? And number 12: establish a housing advisory group to meet quarterly and discuss the plan. Seriously?? Even the speculation tax is a joke. I was competing on multiple offer nights against real estate agents I knew who represented buyers just like mine (Canadian residents). Nevertheless, the buyers decided to wait and see what this “legislation” would do. The sellers who hadn’t sold yet got nervous and rushed to put their properties on the market. And when they didn’t sell on offer night, they re-listed them again. Buyers got confused why properties weren’t selling on offer night and the psychology of not having an offer night and not being in a bidding war started to play. Meanwhile, sellers weren’t happy because they weren’t getting as much as their neighbours a month and two before. It literally became a stand-off.
(3) August 2017. The frustrated sellers from May, June and July have taken their properties off the market. The hungry buyers are like, WTF? There’s no inventory. (**I mean, it’s August, so duh.**) But because buyers are hungry and not sure what the fall will hold…they’re scooping up the properties again amid multiple offers. We’re back again to offer nights and bully offers. There is an evident shift happening. The numbers aren’t as gang busters, but the hesitant buyers of 2017 have just decided to make a move.
Toronto Fall Market Predictions:
We’ve had our market correction. Instead of this insane seller’s market that we had earlier in the year, we have shifted towards a bit more of a balanced market. August’s buyers who are feeling the pinch of not buying in July are going to be happy with a little more inventory as I would expect (as it traditionally goes) more properties to come up after Labour Day when people return from vacations and kids go back to school. My thoughts?
- Perfect time to buy a condo since renting has gotten out of hand
- Perfect time to sell your condo and buy up – condo appreciation is way up, freehold is down for the first time in a long time
- Possibly a great time to sell your freehold — list sooner than later though. Prices are still up year over year, and the summer buyers are going to be looking.
Oh and….New headlines maybe to consider reading: